2015英特尔ISEF获奖作品摘要 生物医学与健康科学 Intel Finalist Abstract Biomedical and Health Sciences

获奖作品基本信息

年份	2015
学科	生物医学与健康科学 Biomedical and Health Sciences
国家/州	United States of America

获奖作品名称

The Ebola Epidemic in West Africa: Developing a Transmission Model to Compare the Effectiveness of Interventions

获奖作品摘要

Purpose: a) Design and implement a gravity spatial model for the ongoing epidemic of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in West Africa; and b) use this model, to evaluate the relative effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing local or long-range transmission, such as quarantine, lock-downs, and border closure.

Methods: The gravity spatial model was fitted to data from May 24 to September 30, 2014, and simulated to October 31. The model provided data about the balance of transmission from local and long-range sources. The model was used to simulate different levels and types of intervention and compare the efficacy of interventions by examining the case reductions of each one.

Results: This model accurately fits the data from the epidemic and accurately forecasts cases and deaths for the month after the data. The model's spatial spread component allows it to explain the transmission dynamics of the EVD outbreak in West Africa, including multiple "ignition" cycles of the outbreak in Guinea. The intervention analysis supports that local transmission reduction in Liberia and long-range transmission reduction in Sierra Leone were the most effective interventions.

Conclusion: The gravity spatial model is an effective framework for understanding transmission dynamics in the EVD epidemic in West Africa. It successfully fits and forecasts data from the outbreak. The intervention analysis presented here can help to guide public health policy and intervention efforts for this and future outbreaks.

 

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ISEF 简介

英特尔国际科学与工程大奖赛，简称 "ISEF"，由美国 Society for Science and the Public（科学和公共服务协会）主办，英特尔公司冠名赞助，是全球规模最大、等级最高的中学生的科研科创赛事。ISEF 的学术活动学科包括了所有数学、自然科学、工程的全部领域和部分社会科学。ISEF 素有全球青少年科学学术活动的“世界杯”之美誉，旨在鼓励学生团队协作，开拓创新，长期专一深入地研究自己感兴趣的课题。

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英特尔 ISEF 学术活动详细介绍

英特尔 ISEF 全程指导方案

- 数学 - 物理 - 化学 - 生物 - 计算机 - 工程 -

学科简介：生物医学与健康科学 Biomedical and Health Sciences

This category focuses on studies specifically designed to address issues of human health and disease. It includes studies on the diagnosis, treatment, prevention or epidemiology of disease and other damage to the human body or mental systems. Includes studies of normal functioning and may investigate internal as well as external factors such as feedback mechanisms, stress or environmental impact on human health and disease.

Subcategories:

Cell, Organ, and Systems Physiology (PHY): These studies investigate mechanisms that are involved in maintaining health or when disrupted, cause disease. They could involve investigating such things as the role of cell signaling pathways both within the cell (intracellular) and/or between cells (extracellular). Alternatively, studies in this subcategory could investigate the maintenance of homeostasis at the organ or whole body level (e.g., hormonal control and regulation). These studies may also be in areas such as disease-related, stress-related, biochemical, mechanical, or physical changes at the tissue, organ, and /or cellular level.

Genetics and Molecular Biology of Disease (GEN): These studies investigate the genetic and molecular mechanisms involved in the regulatory pathways that maintain normal body and cellular function or if disturbed can lead to disease. Studies could include examining the activation and deactivation of genes (e.g., transcription factors or epigenetic regulation) or involve more classical genetic identification studies.

Immunology (IMM): These studies will investigate any aspects of the immune system that are involved in maintaining health or when altered lead to pathology. These studies can include new investigations of normal immune function (e.g., immune cell interactions and signaling), or they may study diseases caused by disorders in regulation of the immune system (e.g., immunodeficiency or autoimmunity). Alternatively the studies could investigate problems such as graft vs host or host versus graft disease that arise during the treatment of other diseases or conditions.

Nutrition and Natural Products (NTR): The study of food, nutrients and dietary need in humans, and the effects of food and nourishment on the body.  These studies may include the effects of natural or supplemental nutrients and nutrition.

Pathophysiology (PAT): These studies will be focused on determining specific causes of disease and on physiological mechanisms responsible for disease development. Investigations in this category will examine changes in the normal physiological balance, or homeostasis that cause a reaction(s) within the body leading to disease.

Other (OTH): Studies that cannot be assigned to one of the above subcategories. If the project involves multiple subcategories, the principal subcategory should be chosen instead of Other.